Consumer video usage has reached new levels with the advent of user-generated content and the Web 2.0 generation. As video communication services converge, ubiquitous access to these services will continue to fuel usage and growth.

Yet, every media and avenue of communication has technological and behavioral pros and cons, and every medium can be used in a correct and incorrect context.

The latter becomes somewhat nebulous these days as we witness people being sacked from their jobs or receiving marriage proposals via short message service (SMS). Even video sharing, and its lack of moderated content, can sometimes be deemed "destructive," as opposed to "disruptive," technology.

In retrospect, the success of any communications media and content delivery service can be directly related to understanding and knowing the right answer to all of the following questions:

1. Is there strong enough interest to trigger usage?
2. Is there a specific context, or timing, for when a video service will be used?
3. Why will a service be used in a specific medium as opposed to others?
4. What is the quantifiable success and completion rate?

The more limited or complicated a medium is, the more necessary it becomes to correctly understand the questions and answers to ensure usage and success.

In the context of video—especially on the mobile handset—the factors for success are definitely challenging. Given the low usage experienced in the industry today, we can safely say that we do not yet have the correct answers to all of the questions.

What video over mobile has to offer besides a small screen and limited quality is unprecedented mobility and availability.

Leveraging mobility and availability, while considering the correct answers to the four questions above, will lead us to an interesting and promising future—not only for mobile video, but also for converged interactive video services over any bearer.

Clearly point-to-point video calls cannot be the anchor to the success of 3G and video communications. What can we expect given that overall 3G video-enabled handset ownership is estimated at up to 20 percent? Who can we call by video if handset ownership has not reached a critical mass? This fact alone is enough to seal the coffin on the service before it even has a chance.

For video communications to be successful, we need to embrace mobility and find creative ways to allow people to share what is happening to them at special moments in their lives—in real time—with friends, family, or a video community, no matter what video-enabled device they use.

In this case any event becomes a potential trigger that creates usage by a plethora of video-enabled communities that can access the service according to choice—this is what creates a user-motivated-usage (UMU) factor.

The UMU factor is a completely new paradigm to achieve usage success because of the following:

• The community or event offers consumers a strong trigger and interest in using the service.
• The community or event determines the specific context and timing for usage.
• At the specific time, if the target customer is on the move, then the mobile handset becomes the only medium of choice.
• The fact that the service does not depend on others who own 3G video-enabled handsets allows those who do own them to enjoy a successful service with a 100 percent completion rate. Furthermore, a converged environment, including video-enabled PCs, expands the boundaries of the relevant communities.

Imagine a group of teenagers. One is on the move and has a 3G video-enabled handset. A member of the group can initiate a video chat from his or her PC, inviting other friends at home on their PCs, and include their friend on the move using a mobile phone. Will the member of the group on their PCs be interested in seeing their friend who is on the go? Of course! Will the friend on the go accept the video call and want to see and be seen by his or her friends? Of course! Today's youth are the Web 2.0 community—a community that is video-oriented and video-friendly.

Wouldn't it be nice to meet the most valuable player right after a major basketball game? Members of the team's fan club can call to hear what he has to say, and maybe even be selected to be seen by all of the viewers in the fan club to ask a question. At the same time, someone sitting at home watching the game on his or her new HDTV display can join the live video session as well because their cable set-top box (STB) is also a video-enabled client. It could be just your luck that you are stuck at work, but you can enjoy this live from your desktop PC.

Imagine how many such UMU events we miss every day! Imagine how much video traffic, both wireless and wireline, can and should be generated when the UMU factor is taken into account.

Consumers will say, "Yes, I am interested, here and now, and can use the access method that I want to." This is the video at the end of the tunnel.